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Author Topic: Nigeria No Longer Africa's Largest Economy - Here Is Why  (Read 188 times)

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Offline SchoolBoy

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Nigeria No Longer Africa's Largest Economy - Here Is Why
« on: August 14, 2016, 08:57:31 am »
Nigeria has been referred to as Africa's largest economy for years owing to her rich huge multicultural population, natural resources, fertile lands and so on. But this time, there is bad news. She just lost that top spot to South Africa.

Nigeria can no longer boast to be the biggest economy in Africa, since it lost the spot to South Africa after the naira crashed to new lows but the SA Rand appreciated considerably.

With a gross domestic product (GDP) of $296 billion, according to Bloomberg and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Nigeria dropped to become Africa’s second largest economy, after holding the position for two consecutive years, as against South Africa's GDP of $301 billion.

Here I present the 5 major reasons why Nigeria lost the top spot:

1. Global crude oil price crash: Well, this was supposed to affect all nations but Nigeria's case is worst because of her over dependence on oil. Ever since the country discovered oil, she had abandoned virtually every other sector and commenced a spending jamboree unprecedented in her history. And when global crude price crashed, she became among the most affected. 
Oil prices have fallen by over 65 percent since 2014, having a direct toll on the Nigerian economy.

2. Naira devaluation: The recent CBN market driven FX policy which is a systematic devaluation of the Naira has seen the currency value plunged from its long time unrealistic pegged value of 197 NGN per USD to over 300+. Meanwhile, the Rand was appreciating.

3. Slow, dysfunctional, economic, monetary, fiscal and governmental policies with no real continuity backbone: Nigeria's history has seen many economic policies and successor styles making the country take 1 step forward and 3 backwards. This is anti development. We have witnessed many successors reversing their predecessors policies. Example is a CBN governor taking back the CRR from the predecessor's almost 100% to about 30%. You'd wonder: did they read different books?
Another dysfunctional policy has to do with diversification and importation.

4. Continued below...
   
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    Offline SchoolBoy

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    4. In 2016 alone, NBS figures show that inflation in Nigeria has spiked by over 71 percent, moving from 9.6 percent in January to 16.5 percent by June,the highest ever in almost 11 years!

    As the inflation spiked, the cost of running business skyrocketted: some businesses went down and many jobs were lost.

    5. FX scarcity: Someway somehow, the CBN  have not been able to tackle the FX scarcity issue in the country. This has really put many international FX-exposed businesses and transactions at strain, this affecting the people. No CBN policy has been able to root this out. You'd wonder: what's really going on? Enough if these trial and error approaches.

    So, having lost the top spot, the way forward is forward.

    How do we move forward?
       
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